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3 Myths About Voting and Market Volatility

When it comes to investors’ decisions about the market, the election is just one factor among many.

Every four years, the U.S. presidential election brings uncertainty – something the human mind, and markets, tends to dislike. But if you’re concerned that the markets will dive or thrive based solely on who is in the oval office, historic trends show that anxiety is unfounded. Through the last century, the long-term performance of the markets has revealed little correlation with government policies, according to an analysis by Raymond James Equity Research.

Here, we address three myths surrounding elections and market performance.

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Nothing Recedes Like Recession

Read the weekly economic commentary from Chief Economist Scott Brown.

January 4, 2019

Financial market volatility remained elevated in the first few days of 2019, but it’s much more palatable when it is to the upside. Market participants remained concerned about a number of issues (global growth, trade policy, dysfunction in Washington), and fear remains a key factor in the outlook. Whether that fear abates or intensifies will tell the tale.

The employment report is composed of two separate surveys. The establishment survey (which covers 149,000 businesses and about 651,000 individual worksites) generates estimates of payrolls, wages, and hours. The household survey (of some 60,000 eligible households) yields reasonable estimates of the unemployment rate and labor force participation but terrible estimates of the monthly level of employment. The establishment survey covers the pay period that includes the 12th of the month (which can vary from firm to firm). The household survey is taken during the week of the 12th. The December Employment Report included annual benchmark revisions to the household survey data, but this was a very mild revision. The annual benchmark revisions to the establishment survey data (which ties the payroll estimate to actual payroll tax receipts) will be released next month, but early indications from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest that this will be a relatively modest revision.

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